2018年美国中期选举与特朗普政府政策走向

The 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections and the Future of Trump Administration's Policy

2018年美国中期选举以民主党重掌国会众议院多数、共和党维持并扩大国会参议院多数、两党在州长层次更加平衡的结果落幕。这一基本符合"民意回摆"历史规律的中期选举并不是一次关于经济等国内议题的竞争,而是围绕价值观展开的竞争。选举不但反映出了美国部分选民对特朗普两年执政所表现出的国家发展方向的深度不满,也体现出民主党巩固青年人、少数族裔以及其他群体等基本盘并扩展女性选民群体支持的成功。本次中期选举之后形成的"分立政府"将对特朗普政府的国内政策带来较大阻碍,但两党在基础设施建设等议题上仍存在妥协与合作空间。面对国内压力,特朗普政府可能更加急于寻求在对外政策维度上民众可以满意的进展,但也会遭遇国会民主党人的一定制约。在对华政策上,共和党主导的白宫与民主党主导的国会众议院的共同参与极可能导致当前分歧的复杂化,为中美关系带来更大风险与不确定性。

In the 2018 U.S. midterm elections,while the GOP expanded its majority in the Senate,the Democratic Party regained control of the House of Representatives,and nearly gained parity in state gubernational seats. Basically following the historical law of "Pendulum Effect,"the midterm elections focused on issues of values rather than economic ones. The elections showed the deep dissatisfaction of some American voters on the direction of the nation in the past two years of the Trump administration,and that the Democrats consolidated a voting base including young people,ethnic minorities and other groups,and successfully expanded support among female voters. The "divided government" formed by the midterm elections will bring greater obstacles to the Trump administration's domestic policies,but the two parties still have room for compromise and cooperation on issues such as building infrastructure. In the face of domestic pressure,the Trump administration might be eager to satisfy the public in the area of foreign policy although it will still be subject potentially to restrictions by Congressional Democrats. In China policy,a Republican-led White House and a Democratic-led House are likely to complicate current issues and bring greater risks and uncertainties to China-U.S. relations.