论工业化过程中劳动收入份额的“羹匙曲线”

The Spoon Curve of Labor Income Share during the Process of Industrialization

文章使用完整工业化阶段划分和可比统计口径,考察了18世纪中后期至21世纪初英国、美国、法国、德国、日本的劳动收入份额演进状况,并对以往学界提出的"下降说"、"稳定说"、"U形说"和"三次说"之间的差异或矛盾进行解释。研究发现:(1)工业化过程中劳动收入份额的变动轨迹形如"羹匙曲线":在工业化初期经历下降,工业化中期显著回升,工业化后期相对稳定,后工业化阶段则呈现小幅回落;(2)倘若将劳动收入份额视为劳动者的"奶酪",则工业化初期失去的"奶酪"可以在中后期复得;(3)对当前中国而言,及时把握工业化中后期处于压缩的劳动收入份额提升"机会窗口"更为重要和紧迫。

On the premise of complete stage division and comparable statistical caliber,this paper conducts a historical investigation on the evolution of labor income share in Britain,the United States,France,Germany and Japan from the middle or late eighteenth century to the early twenty-first century,and it explains the differences or contradictions between the commonly believed“descent hypothesis”,“stability hypothesis”,“U-shaped hypothesis”and“cubic hypothesis”.The research finds that(1)the changing track of labor income share in the process of industrialization was like the“spoon curve”.In the early stage of industrialization,the labor share first decreased,then it experienced a remarkable recovery in the middle of industrialization.After that,labor share remained relatively stable before a slight decline in the post-industrial stage.(2)Viewing the share of labor income as the“cheese”of laborers,the“cheese”lose in the early stage of industrialization could be recovered during the middle and later stages.This paper suggests that it is more important and urgent for China to grasp the time-bound opportunity window to promote labor share in the middle and late stages of industrialization.