市民化意愿对农业转移人口消费行为的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Rural Migrants' Citizenship Intention on Their Consuming Behavior

文章运用国家卫计委流动人口动态监测社会融合数据,采用OLS、PSM、标准logit模型等方法估计市民化意愿(转户意愿和长期居住意愿)对农业转移人口消费行为的影响。研究发现,有转户意愿和长期居住意愿分别使消费水平显著提升,长期居住意愿对消费水平的影响高于转户意愿。政府应适当提供政策支持,提高农业转移人口的市民化意愿。结合"户籍化市民化",重点推进"常住化市民化",以推动消费需求增长。在消费结构方面,有市民化意愿者会显著降低食品支出占比,明显增加在住房和请客送礼方面的消费比重以促进融入城市。有转户意愿者还会显著提高教育支出比例,而有长期居住意愿者还将大幅增加医疗消费份额。因此,政府应尽力为农业转移人口提供融入城市的条件,致力于完善住房、教育和医疗等制度。

Based on the social integration data from the Dynamic Survey of Migrants conducted by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China,this paper analyzes the impact of citizenization intention(Hukou transformation willingness and long-term living willingness)on the consuming behavior for rural-to-urban migrants.The study finds that both the willingness to get local urban hukou and to live long term in city could improve consumption,with the latter being more influential than the former.It is meaningful for the government to boost up migrants’citizenization intention in order to stimulate consumption.In terms of consumption structure,migrants’citizenization intention helps to reduce the share of family food consumption,and to increase the expenditure in housing and social exchanges.Those who have the willingness to obtain urban hukou will also increase their education expenditure,and those who want to live permanently in cities tend to increase their medical consumption.Therefore,it is vital to improve the systems of housing,education and that of health care.