基于SD-MOP模型的城市土地利用结构情景模拟研究——以呼和浩特市为例

Research on scenario simulation of structure of urban land use based on SD-MOP Model——A case study of Hohhot

以呼和浩特市市区为例,结合2001-2016年研究区土地利用分类调查数据和相关社会经济统计年鉴数据,分别对SD模型和SD-MOP集成模型的基于基准、粗放及集约利用等三种情景模式下的2001-2040年城市土地利用结构进行模拟仿真,并对两种模型间的不同情景下用地面积仿真结果作对比和择优。结果表明:(1)SD模型的仿真结果中三种情景约束下用地面积占比的平均年增率最大的用地类型是特殊用地,年增率平均值达到16.316%,其中集约利用情景下的年均增率值最大;(2)SD-MOP模型的不同情景仿真结果中用地面积占比年增率平均值最大的用地类为商服用地,即达到50.390%,且集约利用情景下其年均增率值最大;(3)不同情景下SD-MOP模型的用地预测总面积年增率均要高于同一情景下SD模型对应值,且基于基准、粗放和集约情景下分别高出0.439%、1.790%和2.047%。结合城市聚集经济原理和土地利用效益最大化要求,宜选择集约利用情景下基于SD-MOP模型的仿真方案为最佳情景仿真方案。

Taking the districts of Hohhot city as study area,combined with its survey data of land use classification and related social and economic statistical yearbook data in2001-2016,respectively simulate the three scenarios of baseline,extensive and intensive utilization for the urban land use structure in2001-2040based on the SD model and SD-MOP integration model,and compare and merit the simulation results of the kinds of land area under different scenarios between the two models.The results show that:(1)As for the simulation results of SD model,the type of land with the highest average annual growth rate under the constraint of three scenarios is special land,with the average annual growth rate reaching16.316%,among which the average annual growth rate under the intensive use scenario is the largest.(2)As for the different scenario simulation results of SD-MOP model,the land with the highest average annual growth rate of the kinds of land area is commercial land,which reached50.390%,and its annual growth rate is the maximum under intensive use.(3)The annual growth rate of the SD-MOP model in different scenarios is higher than the corresponding value of the SD model in the same scenario,which is higher than0.439%,1.790%and2.047%respectively based on baseline,extensive and intensive scenarios.In combination with the principle of urban agglomeration economy and the requirement of land use efficiency maximization,it is advisable to choose the simulation scheme of the intensive use scenario based on SD-MOP model as the optimal scenario simulation scheme.