中国OFDI对东盟国家出口贸易转型的分析——基于“一带一路”倡议

One Belt And One Road initiative:Empirical analysis of China's OFDI's transformation of asean countries export trade

"一带一路"倡议的实施,为中国与东盟贸易和投资提供了良好的发展契机。本文试图从总量和结构两个方面分析中国OFDI对东盟出口贸易转型的影响。从总量分析的基本视角,采用数据指标(OFDI和行业OFDI以及外贸依存度、各技术含量产品的出口量)的分析判断贸易规模的质量水平;从结构分析的基本视角,运用2003-2015年中国对东盟国家的OFDI存量和3位SITC Rev.3编码的产品贸易数据,在Lall(2000)对各技术含量出口产品分类的基础上,采用hausman(2007)的方法测算了出口贸易复杂度指标;最后利用pooled EGLS方法分析论证OFDI对东盟出口贸易结构转型升级的影响。分析结论表明,中国对东盟的OFDI在总量和结构上均促进出口贸易结构的优化,较好地实现了出口贸易结构的转型升级。

In the background of trade and investment development opportunities between China and ASEAN brought by Belt and Road Initiative.the paper analyse the impact of China's OFDI on the export trade transition for ASEAN from two aspects of total amount and structure.Firstly,analyzing status of export trade with index.Secondly,with the China's OFDI data of period 2003 to 2015 and Product trade data of 3 SITC Rev.3,On the basis of Lall(2000)classification of export products of technical content,the complexity index of export trade was calculated by Hausman(2007)method.Finally,using the pooled EGLS method to analyze the effect of OFDI on ASEAN export trade structure transformation and upgrading.The result show that China's OFDI to ASEAN obviously promotes export structure optimized and reaches a goal of export structure's transformation and upgrading In the development of the Belt and Road Initiative.