雅安市旅游产业回归分析预测研究

Research on Regression Analysis and Prediction of Tourism Industry in Ya'an City

四川省雅安市是典型的旅游型城市,雅安旅游产业对带动地区经济增长,提高人民生活水平至关重要。现基于2002～2017年雅安市旅游业发展相关统计数据,依循奥卡姆剃刀基本原理,通过SPSS21.0统计软件对雅安市旅游总收入与主要旅游产业要素进行分析建立多元线性回归模型,并通过所建立的模型进行预测检验,验证了模型的有效性。并对此提出了以经济增长推进旅游产业;逐渐提升交通能力;进一步探究并发挥其他影响雅安旅游产业发展的有效能力等建议。

Ya'an City is a typical tourist city,which tourism industry is crucial to driving regional economic growth and improving people's living standards.Based on the statistical data of tourism development in Ya'an from 2002 to 2017,the article follows the basic principles of Occam's razor and analyzes the total tourism revenue and main tourism industry elements of Ya'an through SPSS21.0 statistical software to establish a multiple linear regression model.The established model is used for predictive testing to verify the validity of the model.The research results show that the impact of transportation capacity and consumption capacity on the development of tourism industry is remarkable.Further improvement of these factors can effectively improve the development of tourism industry.