考虑风险的配电网建设项目投资决策评价

Investment Decision Evaluation of Distribution Network Construction Project Considering Risk

随着电网建设与改造项目投资力度的加大,电力投资公司面临着巨大的投资挑战,为了提高投资效益、减小投资风险,同时满足施工单位的技术要求以及基本的社会需求,本文在原有经济性和技术性指标体系的基础上引入投资风险和社会影响两大因素,建立了一套完善的配电网建设项目投资决策评价指标体系,并结合欧式贴近度、灰色关联度修正传统理想解法(TOPSIS)的贴近度,通过贴近度的二次根式相乘来确定评价对象决策值,据此量化描述电网规划的效果,实现多个规划项目之间的比较,进而完成项目投资优选。最后,通过实际案例的计算分析了风险对项目投资决策的影响,证明了本文改进方法的有效性与准确性,为配电网投资提供了一套科学、客观的决策理论。

The paper is to consider the risk of distribution network construction project investment decision-making evaluation,in order to improve the investment benefit and reduce the investment risk,at the same time satisfy the requirements of the construction units and basic social needs,introduces investment risk and social influence to establish a set of perfect evaluation index system on the basis of the existing economic and technical index system.Combining European degree and grey correlation degree,the traditional TOPSIS is improved,and the decision value is determined through the multiplication of quadratic roots.According to the result,the implementation effect of the investment planning is described quantitatively,and the comparison between the planned and the current is realized,which optimized the investment project.By the actual case analysis,the effectiveness of this evaluation method is proved,which provides an effective decisionmaking method for the investment of distribution network.