江苏省大气重污染过程特征分析以及预报效果评估

Characteristic Analysis of Heavy Air Pollution Process and Evaluation of Forecast Effect in Jiangsu

结合了气象、环境的观测数据和模式数据对江苏省近两年冬季重污染过程进行了分析,并评估了模式和人工预估结果。研究表明,与2016年相比,2017年冬季的大气污染形势更加严峻,重污染天数和污染程度都明显增加。冬季风异常是造成重污染加重的重要原因,秋冬季预报时应该及时分析短期气候变化,尤其是风场的变化。

This paper analyzed the characteristics of heavy air pollution process during winter in Jiangsu,combining with the meteorological and environmental observation data and model data,and evaluated the result of model prediction and manual prediction.The study showed that compared with 2016,the air pollution situation in 2017 winter is more severe,and the number of heavy pollution days and pollution levels has increased significantly.The winter monsoon anomaly is an important reason for heavy pollution aggravation.In autumn and winter heavy pollution forecast,short-term climate change,especially the change of wind field,should be analyzed in time.