武术套路赛事风险评估研究——以2018年全国武术套路冠军赛(传统项目)为例

Study of Risk Assessment of Wushu Routines——Take the 2018 National Wushu Routine Championship(Traditional Events) as an Example

以风险管理原理与方法为理论基础,将2018年全国武术套路冠军赛相关人员、环境、事件作为调研对象,运用文献资料、专家访谈、德尔菲、头脑风暴、数理统计、逻辑分析、实地考察等研究方法。结合项群理论中武术套路应属的类别进行研究,从比赛前、比赛中和比赛后三个阶段通过层次分析法和ABC分类法评估2018年全国武术套路冠军赛风险的权重。研究认为:按照层次分析法全国武术套路冠军赛赛事风险可划分为3个一级指标、8个二级指标、20个三级指标;根据赛事风险因素分析现实情况,应对措施可以从购买保险、风险控制和风险干预三个角度去降低风险发生概率。

Based on the theory and method of risk management,this study takes the related personnel,environment and events related to the National Wushu Routine Championship in2018as the research object,using literature,expert interview,Delphi,brainstorming,mathematical statistics,logical analysis,field investigationand other research methods.Combining the category of Wushu routines in the theory of item group,the weight of the risk of the National Wushu Routine Championship in2018is evaluated from three stages:before the competition,in the competition and after the competition,by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the ABC classification method.According to the analytic hierarchy process,the risk of National Wushu Routine Championship can be divided into3primary indicators,8secondary indicators and20tertiary indicators.According to the risk factors of the event,the actual situation can be analyzed.The measures can reduce the risk from three perspectives,namely,purchasing insurance,risk control and risk intervention.