基于加权最小二乘法的旅游人数预测模型构建研究——以广东省为例

Research on the Construction of Tourist Prediction Model Based on Weighted Least Square Method——taking Guangdong Province as an Example

以广东省2007年至2016年10年的接待旅游人数统计数据为例,依托Matlab平台进行回归分析,针对普通最小二乘法缺乏对数据重要程度考虑的问题,基于加权最小二乘法进行回归模型的优化,从而获得更加精准的预测模型.实证研究结果表明:通过权重突出某些样本数据的重要性能够得到更加准确的预测数据.

Taking the statistical data of tourist from 2007 to 2016 in Guangdong Province as an example,the regression analysis is carried out on the basis of MATLAB.To solve the problem that the ordinary least squares method lacks consideration of the importance of the data,the regression model is optimized based on the weighted least squares method so as to obtain a more accurate prediction model.Empirical results show that more accurate prediction data can be obtained by highlighting the importance of some sample data through weight.