基于风险交互网络模型的项目风险仿真评估

Project Risk Simulation Evaluation Based on Risk Interaction Network Model

项目运行过程中的不确定性越来越高,风险之间出现了多种多样的交互作用,为更加高效准确地评估风险,通过建立风险交互网络模型,评估风险交互强度并将风险分为常数、吸收器、载体和倍增器四类;然后以Anylogic软件为仿真平台,对风险发生概率进行建模仿真,从三个角度:(1)风险独立;(2)风险受"上游"风险影响;(3)风险影响"下游"风险,分别对风险进行评估,通过分析初始风险值、局部风险值和全局风险值之间的关联和区别,确定项目风险重点控制范围。最后通过某建筑工程项目为算例,验证该模型的适用性及有效性。

Uncertainties in the operation of the project are getting higher and higher,and there are various interactions between risks.In order to assess risks more efficiently and accurately,risk interaction strength is assessed by establishing a risk interaction network model and the risks are divided into four categories:constants,absorbers,carriers and multipliers.Then use Anylogic software as the simulation platform to model and simulate the risk occurrence probability.Risks are assessed from three perspectives:①Risk independence,②Risk is affected by"upstream"risk,③Risk impact"downstream"risk.The project risk control scope is determined by analyzing the correlation and difference between the initial risk value,the local risk value and the global risk value.Finally,a construction project as example to verify the applicability and validity of the model.