基于模糊集合理论的汽车电喇叭缺陷风险可能性判定

Failure probability determination of automobile electric horn based on fuzzy set theory

在中国缺陷汽车产品召回中,非标问题的缺陷均采用风险评估方法进行判定。为了保证风险可能性判定的合理性,采用模糊理论与事故树相结合的方法,开展了风险可能性分析。应用梯形模糊理论,求得基本事件发生概率。建立了汽车电喇叭事故树模型。计算了顶上事件电喇叭失效的发生概率。对基本事件重要度进行分析,查找了故障易发部位,追溯缺陷原因。将模糊事故树的电喇叭失效概率与Weibull分布失效概率对比分析。结果表明:模糊事故树与Weibull失效概率预测结果相对吻合。因而,模糊事故树可用于分析风险诱因,为风险可能性定量计算提供一个新的思路。

Defects of non-standard problem are judged by using risk assessment method for recalling of defective vehicle products in China.A method of combining fuzzy theory with fault tree was adopted to develop risk possibility analysis to ensure the rationality of risk possibility judgment.The probability of basic events was obtained by using trapezoidal fuzzy theory.A fault tree model for automobile electric horn was established to calculate the probability of electric horn failure in top events and in basic events.Analyzed the importance degrees,located the faults,and traced the causes in basic events.Compared the failure probabilit of electric horn with the Weibull distribution of fuzzy fault tree.The results show that the failure probability predicted by using the fuzzy fault tree is in good agreement with that by using Weibull failure probability distribution.Therefore,the fuzzy fault tree can be used to analyze the risk possibility.This method provides a new idea for the risk possibility quantitative calculat ion.