新疆普惠金融发展与经济增长的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Inclusive Finance Development and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

为探索新疆地区普惠金融发展与经济增长之间的关系,本文依据新疆2005-2015年时间序列数据,在分析新疆普惠金融发展与经济发展现状的基础上,运用VAR模型等实证方法,对新疆普惠金融发展水平对经济增长的影响进行定量测量。研究结果表明,普惠金融发展对新疆经济增长具有显著的促进作用,且格兰杰因果检验表明,普惠金融发展与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。最后,提出了促进普惠金融发展、优化普惠金融发展环境和鼓励金融创新的政策建议。

In order to explore the relationship between the inclusive finance development and the economic growth in Xinjiang,based on the time series data from2005to2015in Xinjiang and the analysis on the present situation of Xinjiang’s inclusive finance development and economic development,using the empirical methods such as co-integration test,Granger causality test and the establishment of VAR model,the paper makes a quantitive measurement on the impact of the level of the inclusive finance development on the economic growth in Xinjiang.The results show that the inclusive finance development has a significant role in promoting the economic growth of Xinjiang,and Granger causality test shows that there is a two-way causal relationship between the inclusive finance development and the economic growth.Finally,it puts forward policy proposals to promote the coordinated development of the inclusive finance,optimize the development environment of the inclusive finance and encourage the financial innovations.