人民币汇率制度改革对宏观经济发展的影响研究

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Reform on Macroeconomic Operation

以人民币汇率为门限变量,分阶段检验汇率政策变动对宏观经济变量影响的门限效应。研究发现,顺应汇率周期的制度改革对宏观经济有正向影响,而逆汇率周期的制度改革对宏观经济有负向影响;汇率制度变化往往在短期内对宏观经济的冲击较大,而在长期内逐渐趋于平稳,且汇率制度变化对宏观经济的冲击方向在长短期并不一致;不仅汇率制度改革对宏观经济变量有影响,宏观经济运行也会对汇率制度选择有所制约;"逆周期调节因子"只是一个技术参数,不会形成对人民币汇率机制的变革。

In this paper,we use the RMB exchange rate as a threshold variable to test the impact of the change of RMB exchange rate reform on macroeconomic operation in phases.Results show that the reform that complies with the exchange rate cycle will have a positive impact on macroeconomics,while the reform against the exchange rate cycle will have a negative impact on macroeconomics.The changes of exchange rate often have a larger impact on macroeconomics in the short run,while gradual stabilization has been seen in the long run,with differentiation in terms of impact directions.Not only does the exchange rate system reform have an impact on macroeconomic variables,but the macroeconomics will limit the exchange rate system selection.The“counter-cyclical factor”is just a technical parameter,and will not lead to the reform on RMB exchange rate mechanism.