外商直接投资对东盟全要素生产率及其分解的影响——基于“三角联盟”理论框架

FDI's Impact on ASEAN's TFP and its Decomposition: Based on “Triple Alliance ” Theory

本文基于"三角联盟"理论框架和"随机前沿"实证分析,构建模型测算外国直接投资(FDI)对东盟全要素生产率、技术进步和技术效率的影响效果,从三方阶级利益相互制衡的角度解释计量结果,同时以丰富的东盟经济区建设最新案例作为支撑,得出以下结论 :(1)FDI没有促进东盟全要素增长率、技术进步和技术效率的提高,全球FDI对东盟技术进步没有促进作用,进而导致对东盟全要素生产率的抑制,而中国FDI没有改善东盟全要素生产率的原因是降低了东盟的技术效率;(2)国家资本、本土私营资本势力大于外资的东盟国家,呈现独立自主经济发展模式,对外资的吸引力较强,与外资在科技创新领域有合作,但经济效应并未展现;(3)外国资本势力大于国家资本和本土私营资本的东盟国家,呈现依赖型经济发展模式,外资投资比例过重且集中于劳动密集型产业,并未提升其内在竞争力;(4)东盟国家全要素生产率提高和技术改善只能通过自力更生地发展本民族资本,提高国家资本、本土私营资本的力量。

Combined the theoretical framework of"Triple Alliance"with the empirical method of"Stochastic Frontier Analysis",a number of parametric models were constructed to respectively measure the effect mechanism of FDI on ASEAN total factor productivity(TFP),technical progress(TP)and technical efficiency(TE),and the measurement results are interpreted not only from the standpoint of balancing the interests of the three parties,but also supported by the richest cases originated from ASEAN economic zone construction,the following conclusions were drawn:(1)Global FDI does not contribute to ASEAN’s TP,which leads to the suppression of ASEAN’s TFP.The reason why China’s FDI did not improve ASEAN’s TFP was that it has a low effect on TE;(2)Member countries where national capital and local private capital are stronger than foreign capital present an“independent economic development”model.This model is more attractive to foreign capital and cooperates with foreign capital in the field of scientific and technological innovation,but the economic effect has not been demonstrated;(3)When the foreign capital force is larger than the national capital and the local private capital occurred in member countries,the model of dependent economic development is shown.The proportion of foreign investment is too heavy to improve the local economic core competitiveness,because the foreign capital is just concentrated in the labor-intensive industry.(4)The only way to develop ASEAN’s TFP,TP and TE is carrying out“self-reliance”model,enhancing the power of national capital and local private capital.