长沙市纯电动与混合动力公交车成本对比分析

Comparative Analysis of the Cost of Pure Electric and Hybrid Buses in Changsha

随着资源消耗速度的加快和环境污染问题的加剧,人们开始尝试采取一系列的措施来促进人类社会的可持续发展。电能源作为一种可再生、无污染的能源日益成为人们关注的焦点,而以电能源为动力的纯电动公交车因其噪声小,无污染,逐渐走入人们的视野。本文立足于长沙市纯电动公交车目前的发展状况,建立了八年的全生命周期模型,对纯电动公交车和混合动力公交车的成本进行了对比分析。此外,通过敏感性分析法找出了阻碍纯电动公交车全面推广的重要因素。结果显示,目前长沙市纯电动公交车在市场上并不具有明显的优势,但是随着石油价格的快速增长和电价的缓慢增长,其未来的优势逐渐显露出来;通过敏感性分析法得出了制约纯电动公交车发展的关键性因素是购买成本;发展初期,长沙市纯电动公交车对政府政策扶持和补助依赖性较强,但是,在长沙纯电动公交车的发展成熟还是要靠政府和市场的共同努力来达到。

With the acceleration of resource consumption and the aggravation of environmental pollution,people begin to take a series of measures to promote the sustainable development of human society.As a kind of renewable and pollution-free energy,electric energy has increasingly become the focus of attention,and the pure electric bus powered by electric energy has gradually come into people's view because of its low noise and no pollution.Based on the current development situation of pure electric bus in Changsha,this paper establishes a full life cycle model for eight years and makes a comparative analysis of the cost of pure electric bus and hybrid electric bus.In addition,the sensitivity analysis method is used to find out the important factors that hinder the all-around promotion of pure electric bus.The results show that the pure electric bus in Changsha has no obvious advantages in the market at present,but with the rapid increase of oil price and the slow increase of electricity price,its future advantage is gradually revealed.Through sensitivity analysis,it is concluded that the key factor restricting the development of pure electric bus is the purchase cost.In the early stage of development,Changsha pure electric bus has strong dependence on government policy support and subsidy.However,the development of Changsha pure electric bus still depends on the joint efforts of the government and the market.