基于引力模型的欧洲直接投资区位选择

Gravity Model Based Location Selection of China-European Direct Investment

基于2005—2014年中国对欧洲28个国家(1)的对外直接投资(OFDI)数据,利用引力模型与因子分析法,对中国在欧洲直接投资进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:中国与东道国的双边贸易总额、东道国人口数量、东道国的技术水平和法制水平对中国在欧洲的直接投资有较为显著的正面影响,而东道国的经济水平不是吸引中国投资的重要因素。根据对欧洲东道国吸引力进行评级的结果,文章认为,对引力较好的国家应进行集中投资,对引力一般的国家可以借助战略机遇适度开展投资。

Based on China′s foreign direct investment(OFDI)data from28countries in Europe from2005to2014,the gravitational model and factor analysis method were used to empirically analyze China′s direct investment in Europe.The empirical results show that the total bilateral trade between China and the host country,the population of the host country,the technical level of the host country and the legal level has a significant positive impact on China′s direct investment in Europe,and the economic level of the host country is not an important factor in attracting Chinese investment.Based on the results of rating the attractiveness of European host countries,the article argues that countries with better gravitation should focus on investment,and countries with average gravitational can use strategic opportunities to invest appropriately.