我国亲子游网络关注度时空演化特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of parent-child tourism Internet attention in China

基于百度指数(Baidu Index)方法,获取2013—2016年全国31个省市自治区网络用户(或潜在的亲子游家庭)对亲子游的网络关注度数据,利用季节集中指数、地理集中指数、赫芬达尔指数测度与分析我国亲子游市场的网络关注度时空演化特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明:亲子游网络关注度时空演化特征明显,在时序方面,2013—2016年亲子游网络关注度总体处于上升态势,月网络关注度呈现"单峰"特征,曲线为倒"V"形状,周网络关注度呈现"两梯度"特征,"十一"黄金周亲子游的网络关注度最高;在空间方面,全国亲子游网络关注度区域差异较大,主要集中在东部沿海地区,其中四年来北京市居民对亲子游活动关注度最高,亲子游需求较为强烈。亲子游网络关注度与经济发展水平、居民收入水平、网络发达程度、人口统计特征均呈现高度的正相关关系,并呈现显著性水平;与旅游产业规模存在中、高度的正相关关系,并呈现显著性水平。

This study collects the data of parent-child tourism Internet attention of Internet users(or potential parentchild tourism family)in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2013 to 2016 based on the Baidu Index,and it uses the seasonal concentration index,the geographic concentration index,and Herfindahl-Hirschman index to measure and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of Chinese parent-child tourism market network concern,and its influencing factors.It is found that the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of parent-child tourism online attention are obvious.In terms of time series,the popularity of parent-child tourism online in 2013-2016 is on the rise,the month Internet attention presents the“single peak”characteristic,whose curve is an inverted“V”,the weekly Internet attention presents“two gradient”features,and the golden week of“National Holiday”has the highest online attention;in terms of space,the focus area of the national parent-child tourism Internet varies greatly,mainly in the eastern coastal areas,Beijing residents pay the highest attention to parent-child tourism activities,and the demand for parent-child tourism is relatively strong.The online attention of parent-child tourism shows a highly positive correlation with the economic development,residents’income,network development and the demographic characteristics,which presents a significant level.There is a medium and high positive correlation with the scale of tourism industry,which also presents a significant level.