美国NRC颠覆性技术持续预测系统浅析

Analysis of US National Research Council's Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies

美国国家研究委员会(NRC)发布的《颠覆性技术持续性预测》(Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies)研究报告对颠覆性技术预测的关键问题进行了分析,提出了理想的颠覆性技术持续预测系统模型。本文在此基础上,总结了颠覆性技术预测的内涵和挑战,给出了理想的持续性预测系统的属性,并对理想系统模型及实现的功能进行了分析,最后提出了颠覆性技术预测方法研究的启示,以期为我国相关研究工作提供参考与借鉴。

The National Research Council’s(NRC)report on Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies analyzes the key issues of disruptive technology forecasting and proposes an ideal persistent forecasting system model.On this basis,the paper summarizes the connotation and challenges of disruptive technology forecasting,presents the attributes of the ideal persistent forecasting system,and analyzes the system model and its functions.Finally,the enlightenment of the research on disruptive technology forecasting is proposed,thus to provide reference for relevant research work in China.