“全面二孩”政策背景下园舍建设需求预测分析

An Predictive Analysis of the Demand for Kindergarten Construction under the Context of “Universal Two-Children” Policy

随着"全面二孩"政策的实施,全国及各省、自治区、直辖市在园幼儿数增长较快,在2021年达到峰值后逐年减少;幼儿园园舍数量、占地面积及建筑面积需求变化趋势与在园幼儿数变化趋势基本保持一致。各省、自治区、直辖市幼儿园园舍建设需求存在差别。从地域上看,东部地区园舍建设需求变化幅度较大,即需求增长快回落也快;中西部地区园舍建设需求较为稳定,一直表现出较强的需求态势。为应对"全面二孩"政策,建议:科学监测在园幼儿数,准确把握园舍建设需求;全面保障园舍资源供给,重点向中西部倾斜;坚持扩总量与优结构相结合,实行多元化供给策略。

Based on the data of the sixth National Population Census in2010,the study used the Chinese population prediction software(CPPS)to predict the number of Kindergarten's children in the whole country and various provinces and cities from2018to2030,and explored the demand trend of the kindergarten construction.The study found that with the implementation of the“Universal Two-Children”policy,the number of young children in kindergartens will increase rapidly,and will decrease year by year after reaching the peak in2021;the demand trend for the number of kindergartens,the floor areas and the construction areas will be basically consistent with the changing number of kindergartens.There will be differences in the demand for kindergarten construction in different provinces and cities.From a geographical point of view,the demand of kindergarten construction will fluctuate dramatically in the eastern region,that is,it will both increase and decrease rapidly;the demand in central and western regions will be relatively stable,and will show a strong demand.In order to cope with the policy of“Universal Two-Children”policy,the paper puts forward suggestions for optimizing the construction of kindergartens.We need to monitor the number of children in kindergartens scientifically and grasp the needs of the construction of kindergartens accurately.Besides,we need to guarantee the fully supply of the kindergarten resources,focus on the central and western regions,and enlarge the total amount and optimize the structure to implement diversified supply strategy.