城市轨道换乘站客流拥塞风险识别方法

An Identification Method of Passenger Flow Congestion Risks in Rail Transit Transfer Stations

大城市轨道交通的迅猛发展令轨道客流逐年攀升,换乘站点已成为城市大规模客流的主要集散地,由此带来了客流拥塞的安全隐患.本文旨在研究轨道换乘站客流拥塞风险的识别方法.基于实时回传的AFC数据,提取轨道换乘站客流,并在时变特征分析的基础上将客流划分为3类:进站客流、出站客流和换乘客流,将对应的客流量选取为客流拥塞风险评价指标.将轨道的运营时间(05:00—23:00)以15 min为最小单元细分为72个时段,基于灰色聚类构建轨道换乘站客流拥塞风险评价模型,实现对轨道换乘不同时段客流拥塞风险等级的识别.应用该方法对北京市东直门轨道换乘站的客流拥塞风险进行评价,验证了该方法的有效性.

The rapid development of rail transit in large cities has led to a continuous increase in rail passenger traffic.Transfer stations have become the main distributing center of massive passenger flow,leading to potential safety hazard of passenger flow congestion.The purpose of the paper is to study the identification method of passenger flow congestion risk in rail transit transfer stations.Based on the real-time data of AFC(Automatic Fare Collection)system,the passenger flow of rail transit transfer stations was extracted,and the passenger flow was classified into three types:arrival passenger flow,departure passenger flow and transfer passenger flow based on the analysis of time-varying characteristics.The passenger flow of three types was selected as evaluation indexes.Then the operation time(5:00 to 23:00)of rail transit was divided into 72 periods,with 15 minutes per period,and the evaluation model of passenger flow congestion risk in rail transit transfer stations was established based on grey clustering,realizing identification to passenger flow congestion risk level of rail transit transfer stations in different periods of time.Finally,the method was applied to evaluate the passenger flow congestion risk of the Dongzhimen transfer station,and the validity of the method was proved.