基于公交IC卡信息的公交客流推算

Bus Passenger Flow Calculation Based on IC Card Information

武汉市常规公交采用单一票制收费模式,刷卡字段中缺少下车的相关信息,无法直接得到公交乘客的出行路径.本文重点基于公交GPS数据和IC卡刷卡数据,建立公交刷卡乘客上、下车站点识别模型.其中上车站点识别包含基于GPS时间和IC卡刷卡时间识别2个模型,下车站点识别包含基于出行连续性和出行链识别2个模型.分别对比分析2个模型的优劣,并以实际数据试算得到的识别率为判别标准,选取较高者为最终识别模型.最终上车站点识别模型选取基于GPS时间识别,因为基于IC卡刷卡时间识别,站点序号基本对应不上,而基于GPS时间识别,站点识别率高达98. 31%;下车站点识别模型选取基于出行链识别,因为基于出行链识别的识别率为70%左右,基于乘客出行连续性识别为50%左右.

The Wuhan conventional public transit adopts a single-ticket charging system,and the relevant information of getting off the bus is missing in the bus farecard transaction field,and the travel route of individual passengers cannot be directly obtained.Based on the GPS data and IC card data,this paper establishes models to identify the location information about where passengers get onto and get off of a bus.The on-board site identification includes two models based on GPS time and IC card swipe time identification.The get-off site identification includes two models based on travel continuity and travel chain identification.The advantages and disadvantages of the two models are compared and analyzed separately,and the recognition rate obtained by the actual data trial calculation is the discriminant criterion,and the higher one is selected as the final recognition model.Finally,the vehicle identification model is based on GPS time recognition.Because the IC card is based on the time identification,the station serial number is basically not matched,and based on GPS time recognition,the site recognition rate is as high as 98.31%.The drop-off site identification model is selected based on the travel chain identification.Because the recognition rate based on the travel chain recognition is about 70%,the passenger travel continuity recognition is about 50%.