基于耕地产能的区域人口承载压力研究——以广东省潮州市潮安区为例

Analysis of Regional Population Bearing Pressure and Cultivated Land Productivity:Taking Chao'an District of Chaozhou City as an Example

旨在构建一套基于耕地产能分析区域人口承载压力的完整方法流程,以适应自然资源评价的系统化需求。在承载力概念基础上基于供需均衡关系定义了人口承载压力的基本计算框架,界定了公式计算所需的耕地粮食单产、人均热量消耗两类参数指标及包括无压力、压力平衡和压力过载等压力状态的分类标准,基于区域耕地产能核算成果、人口规模设计了区域人口承载压力的统计方法流程,拓展应用四象限分析法实现压力驱动原因的分析。以2015年潮州市潮安区为对象进行了实证研究,测算得到小康生活水平下全区粮食总需求216 335.91t,耕地粮食实际产能、人口承载力和人口承载压力指数分别为171 535.53t、816 834人和26.12%,人均耕地、利用效率和土地质量等综合影响导致不同乡镇压力差异化;提高土地利用强度或综合优化耕作系统可使区域耕地粮食产能、人口承载力和人口承载压力指数分别达到269 423.38t、1 282 967人和-19.70%,292 690.50t、1 393 764人和-26.09%,潮安人口承载压力可得到缓解;方法系统性得到了验证。研究解决了当前基于粮食安全的人口承载压力分析方法流程的完整性问题,可为区域耕地保护、粮食调配提供决策支持。

To meet the systematic requirements of natural resource evaluation,this paper aims to build an analysis approach with complete process for regional population bearing pressure and arable land productivity.Based on the concept of bearing capacity,this paper defines the basic calculation framework of population bearing pressure based on the equilibrium relationship between supply and demand,confirms two kinds of parameter indexes,including the formula for calculating the cultivated land grain yield per unit yield,the per capita heat consumption,and classification of pressure states such as no pressure,pressure balance and overload pressure.Based on the results of regional cultivated land productivity accounting and the population scale,this paper has designed the statistical method flow of regional population bearing pressure and expanded the analysis of applying four quadrant analysis method to discuss the reasons of pressure driving.We took Chaoan district of Chaozhou city in 2015 as an application case.The results show that the total demand of grain is 216 335.91 tons while the actual grain productivity of arable land,population capacity and stress index are 171 535.5 tons,816 834 and 26.12%respectively given well-off standard life level;difference of stress among towns results from three factors,including per capita cultivated land,utilization efficiency,land quality and other comprehensive effects.Increasing the land use intensity or comprehensively optimizing the farming system can make the regional cultivated land grain production capacity,population carrying capacity and population carrying pressure index reach 269 423.38t,1 282 967 people and-19.70%,respectively,292 690.50t,1 393 764 people and-26.09%,the pressure on the population of Chaoan population can be alleviated while the methodological system has been verified.This study solves the problem of integrality of current population carrying pressure analysis method based on food security,which can provide decision support for regional cultivated land protection and grain allocation.