建筑工程项目施工安全管理挣值法理论应用研究

Research on Application of Theory of Earned Value Method in Construction Safety Management of Construction Projects

以安全挣值法为理论基础,通过建立施工项目安全保障水平评价指标体系确定实际施工安全保障水平,并用灰色马尔科夫模型对未来安全保障水平进行预测确定计划安全保障水平,在此基础上计算挣值法中的参数。研究结果表明,灰色预测值与实际值残差相对误差率进行状态划分,然后结合马尔科夫模型计算出的计划安全保障水平精度更高,提高了安全挣值法计算结果的准确性,为项目管理者做出安全管理决策提供了更为可靠的依据。

Based on the theory of safety earned value method,the actual construction safety guarantee level of construction projects was determined by establishing the evaluation index system of construction project safety guarantee level.In addition,the grey Markov model was used to predict the future security level so as to determine the planned security level.Then on this basis,the parameters of the security earned value method were calculated.The results show that the residual error rate of grey predicted value and actual value is used to divide the state.The calculated plan security guarantee level which combined with Markov model is more accurate,and the accuracy of the calculation results of safety earned value method is improved.So the security management earned value method provides a more reliable basis for project managers to make security management decisions.