中国要素禀赋重心与经济重心时空耦合关系研究

Research on the Relationship of Space-time Coupling Between Gravity of Factor Endowment and Economic in China

本文基于1978～2017年我国31个省(市、自治区)要素投入与经济产出数据,利用重心模型刻画改革开放以来我国要素禀赋重心和经济重心的时空演变轨迹及其耦合关系。研究结果表明:在要素禀赋重心方面,改革开放以来,我国劳动力重心较为稳定,资本重心表现出阶段性移动特征,劳均资本重心在不同时期空间上呈相对稳定的渐进式变化。在要素禀赋重心和经济重心的关系研究上,经济重心始终位于劳均资本重心东南方向,前期(1978～1991年)二者位置关系不稳定性较强,后期(1992～2017年)二者呈现出"趋同——偏离——趋同"的演变关系,总体上我国劳均资本重心和经济重心的耦合关系变化更多由区域资本存量变化引起。

Based on the input and output data of 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2017,this paper portrays the spacetime trajectory of China's the gravity of factor endowment and the gravity of economic since the reform and opening up.The results show that China's gravity of labor has been relatively stable,the gravity of capital has shown a characteristic of staged movement.The gravity of capital per labor was relatively stable.In the study of the relationship between the gravity of factor endowment and the gravity of economic,the gravity of economic is always located in the southeast direction of the capital per labor.In the early period(1978~1991),the positional relationship between the two was unstable.Then,the positional relationship showed the trend of“convergence-deviation-convergence”.On the whole,the change of the relationship between the gravity of factor endowment and the gravity of economic is mostly caused by the change of regional capital stock.