中国省际炼化产业产能过剩测度及影响因素分析

An Analysis of the Excess Capacity of China's Inter-provincial Refinery and Its Influencing Factors

近年来中国炼化产业投资冲动攀升,炼化产业产能过剩问题突出,为了及时防治产能过剩风险、减少产能过剩带来的损失,本文采用CES生产函数法、利用2001～2016年炼化产业数据对中国各地区炼化产业产能利用率进行测度,对影响产能过剩的影响因素进行分析,并提出针对性的政策建议。研究结果显示,中国炼化产业整体过剩,经济周期波动、市场需求和企业规模对炼化产业产能利用率有正向影响作用,政府干预对炼化产业产能利用率有负向影响作用;炼化产业产能过剩分布不均衡,中部地区产能利用率水平整体较高,过剩并不明显,东部和西部地区产能过剩比较严重;东部地区产能过剩主要受经济波动和政府干预作用的影响,西部地区产能过剩主要受市场需求不足、企业规模化程度低等因素的影响。

In recent years,the impulse of investment in China's refining and petrochemical industry has risen,and the problem of overcapacity in the refining and petrochemical industry has become prominent.To prevent and control the risk of overcapacity and reduce the loss caused by overcapacity in a timely manner,this paper uses the CES production function method and uses the 2001~2016 refining and petrochemical industrial data to measure the capacity utilization rate of the refining and petrochemical industries in various regions of China,analyze the influencing factors that affect the overcapacity,and propose targeted policy recommendations.The results of the study show that China's refining and petrochemical industry as a whole overcapacity,economic cycle fluctuations,market demand and business size have a positive impact on the capacity utilization rate of the refining industry,and government intervention has a negative impact on the capacity utilization rate of the refining and petrochemical industry;the overcapacity distribution is uneven.The overall capacity utilization rate in the central region is relatively high,the surplus is not obvious.The overcapacity in the eastern and western regions is relatively serious.The overcapacity in the eastern region is mainly affected by economic fluctuations and government intervention and the overcapacity in the western region.It is mainly affected by the lack of market demand and the low degree of scale of the company.