基于灰色系统理论对城市年需水量预测的模型探究

Application of Grey Prediction and Its Improvement on the Urban Water Demand Forecasting

应用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)模型,对研究区的城市需水量进行预测,运用残差理论对数据进行分析,平均相对误差为3. 16%,说明模型具有较高的准确性。模型的建立能够用于研究区的城市年需水量的预测,并为研究区后期的水资源合理利用及调配提供基础数据支撑。

The GM(1,1)model was established by using grey theory.The urban water demand in the study area was predicted.The residual theory was used to analyze the data.The average relative error was 3.16%,indicating that the model has high accuracy.The establishment of the model can be used to predict the annual water demand of the city in the study area,and provide basic data support for the rational use and deployment of water resources in the later period of the study area.