基于解释结构模型的应急救援情景构建研究

Construction of Emergency relief Scenarios Based on Interpretive Structural Modeling

突发事件发生后,基于"情景-应对"决策范式,针对突发事件的动态演变过程,抽象和构建动态情景集,据此做出实时应急决策是非常关键而重要的,因此能够准确构建突发事件的演变情景是"情景-应对"处置模式的重要前提。将突发事件下的情景事件分为初始情景、中间情景以及结束情景,依据多个情景事件构建了情景集。在分析梳理各情景事件之间相互关系的基础上,运用解释结构模型构建了突发事件下应急救援情景的演变路径,通过分析可以发现:政府制定完善的应急预案、准备充足的应急物资以及调动社会组织与志愿者参与应急救援可以最大程度减少突发事件造成的影响。

After the sudden incident,it is critical and important to make real time emergency decision based on the"scenario response"decision-making paradigm,through building a dynamic scenario set according to the dynamic evolution process of sudden events.Therefore,it is an important prerequisite for the"scenario response"decision-making model to be able to accurately construct the evolution of the unexpected events.This article divides the situational events under emergencies into initial,intermediate,and end scenarios.And a scenario set is set up based on multiple scenarios events.On the basis of analysing and correlating each other s interrelationships,an explanatory structural model was used to construct the evolution path of emergency relief scenarios under emergencies.Through analysis,it can be found that the government can formulate sound emergency plans,prepare adequate emergency supplies,and mobilize social organizations and volunteers to participate in emergency rescue to minimize the impact of emergencies.