中国城镇劳动参与率的结构和趋势——基于家庭微观调查的证据

Composition and Trend of Labor Force Participation in Urban China——Evidence from Micro Household Survey

利用中国住户收入项目(Chinese Household Income Project,CHIP)的五次微观数据,研究城镇劳动参与率的趋势及结构特征。按照"性别-年龄"分别讨论男女青年组(16-25)、壮年组(女26-45、男26-55)和中老年组(女46-60、男56-60)的劳动参与选择及其变化规律。结果发现,城镇16-60岁劳动年龄段人口的劳动参与率在2013年底为73.2%,其中女性64.5%,男性82.2%。劳动参与的生命周期特征明显:青年组劳动参与下降最为突出,主要由教育扩张导致;壮年组劳动参与受到家庭结构的影响,并且存在性别差异;中老年组家庭结构影响女性退休选择,对男性影响不显著。同时,假定组内参与率不变,利用人口结构数据估计城镇劳动参与率还将持续下降,预计到2030年达到69.6%。

We examined the structure and trend of labor force participation(LFP)rates in urban China based on the five selections of microdata from the Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP).Accoring to"gender-age",labor force participation choice and its change pattern were discussed in terms of youths(16-25),prime-aged(females of26-45and males of26-55),and middle-ageed and the elderly(females of46-60and males of56-60)respectively.The findings are:For the working-age population as those aged16to60,the overall LFP rate was73.2percent in urban China by2013,among which the female LFP rate is64.5percent and the male LFP rate is82.2percent,respectively.The life-cycle characteristic of labor participationis obvious:For youths,the decline of LFP rate was most noticeable,largely due to education expansion in decades.The prime-aged individuals were impacted by the family structure in labor market decisions with gender differences.For the middle-aged and the elderly,family structure influences women's decision of retirement,but has no obvious effect on men.Meanwhile,assuming that participation rate within the group remained constant,based on the population structural changes,we predict that the overall LFP rate might continue declining and reach69.6%by2030.