中国历史时期兵疫灾害的时空变迁研究

Temporal-Spatial Evolution of War-Epidemic Disasters in Historical China

战争与疫灾均是人类的顶级灾害,战争与疫灾叠加的兵疫灾害,危害尤巨。中国自先秦至清代(770BC-1911AD)的2682年中,至少有224个兵疫之年,兵疫灾害频度8.05%,兵疫灾害波及539县。兵疫灾害频度具有波动上升趋势,先秦两汉(1.21%)经魏晋南北朝(8.03%)至隋唐五代(5.54%)为第一波,宋元时期(7.35%)经明代(15.22%)至清代(33.58%)为第二波。兵疫灾害频度变化具有时序共振特征,1860年代的太平天国运动是中国历史上兵疫灾害最密集的时期;兵疫灾害广度变化具有波动上升趋势,大致以隋唐五代为界,之前影响范围有限,大多只有一个县域,之后影响范围不断扩大,最高可达33个县域。兵疫灾害分布范围由内地向边疆扩散,具有统一时期扩散、分裂时期收缩的总体特征,但内地省份始终多于边疆省份,南方省份始终多于北方省份,兵疫灾害的分布重心始终位于南方地区;北部农牧交错带、中部南北分界线、南部海陆交汇带战争多发,兵疫灾害分布密集;89.61%的兵疫灾害分布在以福州为圆心、以福州至兰州为半径的圆弧内。战争诱发疫灾是最主要的兵疫关系(43.23%),其次是战争伴生疫灾(36.18%);和平时期兵疫灾害较少,但比重不断上升,总体约占两成(19.48%);兵疫灾害对普通百姓的危害最巨,所有兵疫灾害中,指向百姓遭殃和军民俱损的占60.86%。兵疫灾害能影响战争进程,造成人口损失,乃至王朝鼎革。

War and epidemic cause the most serious damage to human beings, and the superposition of both can cause even more serious harmful consequence. During the past 2682 years, there are at least 224 years with war and epidemic disasters taking place simultaneity, the frequency of which is 8.05% and cumulatively spread over 539 counties. The frequency of war and epidemic disasters shows rising tendency: the first wave begins from the pre-Qin and two Han Dynasties (1.21%), to the Wei, Jin and the Southern and Northern Dynasties (8.03%), and ends at the Sui, Tang and five dynasties (5.54%); the second wave begins from the Song-Yuan Dynasties (7.35%), to the Ming Dynasty (15.22%), and ends at the Qing Dynasty (33.58%). In the temporal distribution, the frequency of war fluctuates similarly with epidemic. Taiping Rebellion (1860s) is the most densely populated period in history. The breadth of war and epidemic disasters shows rising trend, before the Sui, Tang and five dynasties, the infect spread is limited, mostly only one county. After the Sui, Tang and five dynasties, the infect spread is expanded, the maxima can be 33 counties. In the spatial distribution, the war and epidemic disasters distributes from the mainland to the frontier. It spreads usually during the united period, and agglomerates during the split period. But the disasters happen more frequently in mainland than in the frontier and happens more frequently in the south than in the north, the central region of which stays in south all the time. War is concentrating upon the farming-pastoral area in north, the north-south divide area in central, and the land-sea area in south, which is the same refer to epidemic. The war and epidemic disaster shows as gathering type, 89.61% of which are located in Fuzhou-Lanzhou Arc. Comes to the relationship between war and epidemic disasters, war induced epidemics is the main type (43.23%), the secondary type is war associated epidemics (36.18%). In peace time, the frequency of the war and epidemic disasters is lower, but with the development of history, the frequency of war and epidemic disasters is rising, the total present of which is 19.48%. The civilians are harmed most seriously. The total present of civilians suffer from disasters and military and civilians loss is 60.86%. In social influence, the war and epidemic disasters can affect the course of war, and cause population loss, even affect dynasty change.