浅析重大耦合突发事件大规模人员转移安置技术研究进展

Large-scale Personnel Transfer and Resettlement Technology in Major Coupling Incidents

城镇突发事件通常伴随一系列次生衍生灾害,具有群发性和连锁性的特征。城市作为人口高度聚集的场所,减少人员伤亡应是灾害应急管理的首要目标。当重大灾难性突发事件发生时,在短时间内安全地大范围疏散转移高密集人群,合理规划安置点,实施科学的应急救灾策略,是减少灾害(事故)后果严重性的重要措施之一。该文就重大突发事件危险识别及大规模人员转移安置技术的相关技术手段进行了综述。现有的研究成果主要针对单一灾种,考虑多灾种因素的较少,评估及疏散模型的研究也多基于框架、定性研究,定量研究的方法及应用较少。研究城市多灾种时空耦合的模拟分析技术,并对各种灾害复杂次生衍生和相互耦合下的城市脆弱性进行分析,综合评估城市灾害风险,辨识和加强城市的安全保障能力,是实现城市安全保障的重大基础需求。

Town emergencies are usually accompanied by a series of secondary-derived disasters that are characterized by clustering and chain. As a highly populated city, the reduction of casualties should be the primary goal of disaster emergency management. When major catastrophic emergencies occur, it is one of the important measures to reduce the severity of disasters (accidents) by safely evacuating large populations in a short period of time, rationally planning resettlement sites, and implementing scientific emergency response strategies. In this paper, the risk identification of major emergencies and related technical means of large-scale personnel transfer and resettlement technologies are reviewed. The existing research results mainly focus on single disasters. Multi-hazard factors are less considered. The research on assessment and evacuation models is mostly based on framework and qualitative research. The methods and applications of quantitative research are less. It is of importance to study the spatial and temporal coupling simulation analysis technology of urban multi-hazards, and analyze the urban vulnerability of various secondary disasters with complex secondary derivation and mutual coupling. Comprehensive assessment of urban disaster risk and identification and strengthening of urban security support capabilities are the basic need for urban security protection.