1912—2000年山东极端低温气象灾害空间分析

Space Analysis of Extreme Cold Weather Disasters in Shandong Province from 1912 to 2000

通过对1912—2000年山东省寒潮、低温冻害、霜冻以及风暴潮等极端气象灾害资料的收集整理,应用历史文献以及数理统计法对这一时期山东省寒潮、霜冻、风暴潮灾害预警的等级、发生频次、空间分布特征以及引发社会影响进行相关性分析。结果表明影响山东灾害串联式频繁的主导因子是低温和大风,由于其地理位置及海陆分布,寒潮一级灾害发生17次、霜冻30次、冻害34次,寒潮灾害多集中在沿海,霜冻灾害多集中在内陆;气象灾害的频发导致人口的外迁及粮食的歉收等,对当时社会经济造成重大的影响。

Through the collection and analysis of extreme meteorological disasters such as cold wave,low temperature freezing damage,frost and storm surge in Shandong Province from 1912 to 2000,we made the correlation analysis on the grades of early warning,the frequency of occurrence,the spatial distribution characteristics,and the social impacts of these disasters by using methods of historical literature and mathematical statistics.As the results show,the dominant factors affecting the frequent series of disasters in Shandong are low temperature and strong wind.Due to its geographical location and sea-land distribution,Shandong suffered the first-grade disasters 17 times,frost 30 times,and freeze damage 34 times,with the cold wave disasters mostly being concentrated in the coastal areas and the frost disasters in the interior.The frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters results in migration of its population and poor harvest,which had a great impact on the social economy at that time.