新疆地区人口—经济—土地系统城镇化耦合协调演化研究

Study on Urbanization Coupling and Coordination Evolution of Population-Economy-Land System in Xinjiang

为探讨新疆地区2006—2016年人口—经济—土地系统城镇化耦合协调的演化趋势,本研究选取2007—2017年《新疆统计年鉴》数据,构建人口—经济—土地系统城镇化协调度模型,测算耦合度和协调度。结果表明,2006—2016年,新疆地区城镇化人口—经济、人口—土地、经济—土地等二系统以及人口—经济—土地三系统的综合评价指数均呈波动上升趋势;二系统耦合度较三系统高,其中二系统处于"颉顽"向"磨合优化"的过渡阶段,三系统则处于"颉顽"初水平阶段;系统间协调度均呈波动上升趋势,由最初的严重失调过渡到初级或中级协调。综合而言,新疆地区2006—2016年城镇化发展较慢,系统间的耦合度和协调度整体水平均较低,有待进一步提升。

In order to explore the evolution trend of the coupling coordination between population-economy-land system urbanization in Xinjiang region from2006to2016,the data of Xinjiang statistical yearbook from2007to2017was selected to build the coordination degree model of population-economy-land system urbanization and calculate the degree of coupling and coordination.The results showed that from2006to2016,the comprehensive evaluation indexes of the two systems of urbanization population-economy,population-land,economy-land,and population-economy-land in Xinjiang were all fluctuating and increasing.The coupling degree of the two systems was higher than that of the three systems,among which the two systems were in the transition stage from"equally matched"to"running and optimizing",and the three systems were in the initial stage of"equally matched".The degree of intersystem coordination was fluctuating upward,from the initial serious imbalance to the primary or intermediate coordination.In general,from2006to2016,the development of urbanization in Xinjiang region was slow,and the overall level of coupling and coordination between systems was low,which needed to be further improved.