基于规模化电动车分时租赁动态成本效益建模仿真

Dynamic Cost Benefit Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Based on Large-scale Electric Vehicle Car-sharing

针对电动汽车分时租赁运营商盈利难题,以年利润为目标函数,建立了商业模式动态成本收益评估模型.通过实地调研和情景预测,分析了大规模电动汽车分时租赁项目动态成本分布和收益情况,综合研究了财税补贴、车辆购置、充电桩、车位配置和租赁价格等关键因素对运营商盈利的动态影响情况,并对分时租赁提出降成本和提高收益的建议,以解决分时租赁盈利难的问题.结果表明:当单车日均租赁时长为3. 5 h,项目达到盈亏平衡,运营管理成本、购车成本和网点建设成本是分时租赁的主要成本,分别占总成本的42. 40%、27. 21%和20. 03%;分时租赁运营商应积极利用国家和地方对电动汽车和分时租赁的支持政策,优化车载诊断系统等措施减少分时租赁成本.

To solve the profitability problem of electric vehicle leasing operators, an electric vehicle car-sharing dynamic cost and benefit evaluation model was established by taking the annual profit as the objective function. According to the field research and scenario prediction, the dynamic cost distribution and income of the large-scale electric vehicle leasing project were analyzed. The dynamic impact of key factors such as fiscal and taxation subsidy, vehicle purchase, charging pile and parking space allocation, leasing price and other factors on the profitability of operators were studied, and suggestions for reducing the cost and increasing the profit on car-sharing were put forward to solve the problem of car-sharing earnings difficulty. Results show that when the average car rental time reaches 3-5 hours, the project achieves profit and loss balance, and operation management cost, car purchase cost and site construction cost are the main costs of car-sharing, accounting for 42.40%, 27.21% and 20.03% of the total cost respectively; car-sharing operators should actively use national and local support policies for electric vehicles and car-sharing, and optimize on - board diagnostic systems to reduce costs.