Seven Decades of China's Energy Industry Development:Retrospect and Outlook

中国能源工业七十年回顾与展望

China’s coal,petroleum,natural gas and electric power industries are in different stages.Coal has a falling share in China’s energy mix,and clean coal is on the rise.While China’s petroleum production stagnates,the natural gas and electric power industries are developing rapidly.Amid the changing energy industries,China’s energy regulatory system has evolved from vertical to integrated management,and energy administrative and supervisory functions have become integrated over time.These changes have played different roles during specific periods,either enhancing or hampering a highefficient development of China’s energy industry.Over the past seven decades,China’s energy industry has acquired important capabilities to support the nation’s social and economic development.With industrial prowess in clean energy and energy efficiency,China has become a leader in global low-carbon and clean energy transition.In the future,China'should attach great importance to the adverse short-term effects of energy transition on its energy security.By deepening energy institutional reform,China'should enhance its energy security through energy transition.

由于不同能源资源禀赋和开发利用程度差异,我国能源工业中的煤炭工业、石油工业、天然气工业和电力工业的阶段划分与当前所处阶段不完全相同。目前,煤炭工业进入产量稳中有降和清洁利用结构优化期,石油工业处于产量停滞的瓶颈期,天然气工业和电力工业都处于快速增长期。我国能源管理体制也伴随着能源工业的发展变化而变化,从部门管理到综合管理尝试,从政监分离到政监合一的变化,在特定时期促进或抑制能源工业高效发展。但无论如何,经历七十年的曲折发展,我国能源工业对经济社会发展的保障供应能力显著增强,能源工业技术能力与装备水平大幅提升,能源清洁高效利用与节能减排水平明显改善,成为全球能源清洁低碳转型的领先者之一。展望未来,我国能源工业发展应高度重视短期内以化石能源内部结构优化为主的能源转型策略对我国能源安全的不利影响,而解决这一问题的关键在于通过深化能源体制改革,使能源转型成为改善我国能源安全的助推器,而非恶化能源安全的加速器。