九寨沟游客网络关注度与客流量互动关系研究

Study on the Interaction Relationship Between Tourists' Network Attention and Visitor Data in Jiuzhaigou

本文收集九寨沟2016年逐日移动游客网络关注度与客流量数据,从天、周、月3个时间尺度分析两者年内变化规律及其异同,在此基础上,利用格兰杰因果关系检验、回归分析等方法,分析两者间的相关关系,结果发现:(1)九寨沟移动游客有淡旺季变化;(2)以天为单位,九寨沟移动游客网络关注度和客流量年内变化呈"锯齿状多峰形",两者变化趋势基本一致;(3)暑假期间学生游客增多,出游时间长,涉及的目的地偏多,计划性和提前性更强;(4)移动游客网络关注度和客流量之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,两者互为因果,相互影响。

This paper collects the daily mobile tourist network attention and visitor data of Jiuzhaigou in 2016, and analyzes the annual variation as well as similarities and differences between the two during the three time scales of day, week and month. On this basis, Granger causality test, regression analysis and other methods were used to analyze the correlation between the two, and the results showed that:(1)Jiuzhaigou mobile tourist network attention and visitor data changes during the year are subject to climate comfort, holidays and other factors, and there are significant seasonal changes, slack and peak seasons;(2)By taking the day as unit, the year change of Jiuzhaigou mobile tourist network attention and visitor data was shown in "jagged multimodal" shape, and the change trend of the two was basically the same;(3) During the summer vacation, there are increased number of student tourists that are with longer travelling time, involving more destinations, stronger planning and advance, resulting in more obvious "precursor effect" of mobile tourists network attention;(4)There’s two-way Granger causality correlation between mobile tourists network attention and visitor data, and the two is with causality and mutual influence.