再犯罪风险评估与中国监禁刑改革的新路径

Risk Assessment and New Approach to the Reform of Custodial Penalty Reform in China

诸多学者通常把再犯罪风险评估与人身危险性理论相混淆,实质上两者在理论源流、评估对象和对象评估上都存在着明显区别。受强调风险评估与控制的新刑罚理论的影响,再犯罪风险评估理论与监禁刑改革在方法论的选择上具有高度的契合性,风险评估理论为监禁刑改革的目的转向与技术支撑提供了基础。以再犯罪风险评估为中心的监禁刑改革可以考虑包括改变减刑假释模式、建构科学的罪犯分类制度、建立现代监狱改造制度等具体路径的选择。

The risk assessment theory originated from English country began to be research after it has been written into The Eighth Criminal Law Amendment as substantive conditions for probation and parole,but the theorists are usually confused with personal dangerous theory.Affected by new penology focused on risk assessment and control,there is a high harmonization in methodology choice between the risk assessment and custodial penalty reform,which provides the basis and technical support to reform.The reform of custodial penalty,which takes the risk assessment as prerequisite,may include the approach choice of changing mode of parole and commutation,constructing the system of scientific prisoner classification and establishing the modern correction system.