特朗普执政初期美国外交的决策困境——基于决策系统分析视角

On the Dilemma of Foreign Policy Making at the Early Stage of the Trump Administration——From the Perspective of Policy Analysis

从美国外交决策系统分析视角入手,透视特朗普执政初期美国外交核心决策机制面临的决策困境,具体表现为:总统极具个性,塑造外交议题能力强,成为决策系统最大变量;国务院及国家安全委员会等执行机构与总统政见不合,人事震荡;安全与情报部门围绕"通俄门"调查总统及其执政团队,触及"深层美国"建国之本;国会中两党争夺激烈,凸显民主政府治理困境,中期选举前途未卜;国防部成为理性决策的刹车,但在公布《国防战略报告》之后,却逐渐游离于核心决策层之外,对重大军事决策毫不知情,决策影响力衰微。目前,特朗普的外交决策机构人员基本确定,此时梳理和分析特朗普执政初期美国外交的决策机制,对于把握当前及未来美国外交具体决策产出和发展趋势具有重要意义。

From the perspective of the foreign policy analysis,this paper presents the dilemma the U.S.foreign policy decision making mechanism faced at the early stage by the Trump administration as follows:the presidents strong personality has become the biggest variable in shaping the issues concerning foreign affairs and there exists the disagreement between the president and the executive branches like the state department and the national security committee,upsetting the appointment of the officials concerned;the Russian investigation led by the security department touched on the Deep State,imperiling the integrity of the presidential legitimacy;inside the Congress,both parties fought fiercely against each other,highlighting the predicament in governance confronting the democratic government,causing uncertainties in the forthcoming mid-term general election;thedefense department should have served as a rational controller over policy making,but it turned out,after therelease of the National Defense strategy Report,an ever-weakening force in this respect,drifting away from thecore of the power and oddly unaware of the major military decisions.At present,when Trump s foreign policy-making team has just set up,to sort out and analyze the Trump administration's policy mak ing mechanism at itsearly stage is of significant to the mastery of the tendency in its producing the US foreign policies for the timebeing or to be.