信贷渠道在产业结构调整中的有效性分析——以产能过剩行业为例

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Credit Channels in the Adjustment of Industrial Structure:Case of Industries with Excess Capacity

利用2001—2015年我国上市公司财务报表数据,从实证研究的结果来看,我国现有信贷渠道能够正确引导资金流向非产能过剩行业。但在货币宽松进程中,资金更多地流向了国企而非民企,即国企"加了杠杆"而民营企业却"去了杠杆"。此外,流向产能非过剩行业的资金更多的是流向了高杠杆企业,这进一步推高了那些杠杆率本来就过高的企业。诚然,较高的杠杆率能够撬动更大的资源,在经济繁荣周期中,企业利用杠杆率能够扩大生产,创造出更多的社会价值,但若经济转入萧条周期,外部需求的减少将使得高杠杆企业面临巨大的风险。笔者认为,在未来信贷调控中,要结合供给侧结构性改革与信贷政策,加强宏观调控,实施差别化信贷政策。

Based on the financial statement data of superior companies in China from 2001 to 2015, the empirical results show that the existing credit channels can correctly guide the flow of funds to non-overcapacity industries. However, in the process of monetary easing, more money flew to state-owned enterprises rather than private ones, that is, state-owned enterprises "increased leverage" while private enterprises "reduced leverage".In addition, more money flows to non-excess capacity industries is to highly leveraged enterprises, which further increases the leverage of the already high-leveraged enterprises. Admittedly, higher leverage can get more resources. During the economic boom, enterprises can use leverage to expand production and create more social value. But if the economy turns into a depression, the reduction of external demand will put highly leveraged enterprises at enormous risks. This paper suggests that we should combine supply-side structural reform ,strengthen macro-control and implement differential credit policy in the future.