摘要
采用系统动力学方法构建水泥行业PM_(2.5)排放的系统动力学仿真模型,识别和分析水泥行业PM_(2.5)排放的主要驱动力,并设置了基准情景、产业政策调控情景、环境政策强化调控情景进行预测与分析。结果表明,目前水泥消费已达到饱和点,进入平稳增长时期。基准情景下PM_(2.5)的直接排放量与水泥消费具有相同的规律,而产业政策情景及环境政策强化调控情景下水泥行业PM_(2.5)的排放量将出现缓慢下降并逐渐平稳的趋势。除尘设施除尘率提升对PM_(2.5)的直接排放影响最大,在产业政策实施的同时,应尽快更新替代对PM_(2.5)有高去除率的除尘器比例。
The response action of PM2.5discharge from the cement industry was analyzed based on the analysis and predication for its decision-making variable input.Simulation model was built for PM2.5discharge by system dynamics.Three scenarios,including baseline scenario,cement industry scenario and enhancement of environmental policy scenario,were analyzed for identifying the main driven forces for the PM2.5discharge from the cement industry.
作者
王向华
吴海锁
李冰
WANG Xianghua;WU Haisuo;LI Bing(Jiangsu Academy of Environmental Sciences, Nanjing 210036, China)
出处
《环境与可持续发展》
2018年第6期154-156,共3页
Environment and Sustainable Development
