中国省际实体经济的差异演化与影响因素——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

The Differential Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Real Economy at Province Scale in China——Empirical Study Based on SDM

文章采用数理统计和空间自相关方法分析2000-2016年中国省际实体经济的差异演化,并通过空间杜宾模型探讨实体经济的相关影响因素。结果表明:(1)省域实体经济的绝对差异不断增大,相对差异小幅波动增加,地带内差异较大且地带间差异趋于缩小。(2)高水平和增长较快的区域主要集中在广东、山东和江苏等东部沿海地区,西部省市实体经济水平较低且增长较慢。(3)实体经济呈现较弱的空间集聚分布态势,但有小幅波动上升,在局部表现出同质集聚的俱乐部现象。(4)空间杜宾模型可知,投资强度、贸易开放、科研投入、人力资本和内需强度显著对本地实体经济发展起正向作用,各因素的空间溢出效应不一。

Using mathematical statistics and spatial autocorrelation,this research analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of provincial real economy in China from 2000 to 2016 and then deeply analyzes the global effects of re?lated factors by employing SDM.The results show that:(1)The absolute difference of provincial real economy is in?creasing,and the relative difference is slightly fluctuated.What’s more,real economy inequality within a region is large and t between regions presented a reducing trend.(2)The regions with high level and rapid growth are mainly con?centrated in Guangdong,Shandong,Jiangsu,and other eastern coastal provinces(municipalities).The western provinc?es have relatively low level of real economy capacity and slow growth.(3)Provincial region of similar real economy level distributes with a weaker agglomeration and the degree of agglomeration has the slight fluctuations.Real economy level shows the phenomenon of homogeneity of the club in local.(4)According to the global analysis,the intensity of invest?ment,trade liberalization,research investment,human capital and domestic demand intensity have played a positive role in the development of local real economy,but spatial spillover effects of various factors are different.