我国钾盐供应风险分析

Risk Analysis of Potash Supply in China

2016年世界钾盐探明总储量比2015年增长10. 42%,但2016年钾盐产量减少,大生产商存在限产保价现象。我国钾盐资源储量的保证程度比较低,钾盐基础储量可保证59年,经济可采储量只能保证8年,钾肥长期依赖进口满足需求。进入21世纪以来,钾盐进口价格快速上涨,我国钾盐供应风险有增大趋势。针对我国钾盐供应中存在的问题,提出了相应的政策建议。

In 2016,the total proved reserves of potash in the world increased by10.42%over that of 2015.However,the production of potash decreased in 2016,and it exists the phenomenon that large producer was limited production to guaranteed prices.The reserve of potash resources in China is relatively low,and basic reserve of potash could be guaranteed for 59 years,while economically recoverable reserve can be only guaranteed for8years.Indeed,potassium fertilizer need long-term relied on import to meet demand.Since the beginning of21st century,the import price of potash has risen rapidly,and supply risk of potash in China has increased.In view of the problems existing in the supply of potash in China,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.