我国流动人口留城意愿及影响因素研究

A Study on Chinese Migrant's City-residing Willingness and Its Influencing Factors

我国流动人口数量众多,在流入地打算长期居住的流动人口超过一半以上。本文通过对2015年流动人口动态监测数据的统计分析发现,教育程度较高、月平均收入较高、月生活支出较高的流动人口具有较强的留城意愿。使用二分类Logistic模型分析各因素对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响,结果表明:性别、年龄、婚姻状况等人口学变量对留城意愿的影响显著,女性留城意愿略高于男性;"90后"流动人口的留城意愿较弱,明显低于其他年龄段的留城意愿;初婚、再婚等婚姻状态的留城意愿明显高于未婚;随着受教育程度的提升,高中及以上的流动人口留城意愿逐渐增强。经济因素对流动人口留城意愿的影响显著,留城意愿随收入水平的提升而增强,高收入流动人口的留城意愿明显高于中低收入者;而房租、房贷等住房成本与平均收入相互制约,表现为随着住房成本的提高,流动人口居留意愿逐渐提升,但对高收入水平流动人口的居留意愿抑制作用较为明显;加入生活成本指标进一步分析发现,流动人口留城意愿随生活成本增加而增强,但生活成本的增加进一步制约了中、高收入水平下的留城意愿,并使各收入水平下留城意愿的差异减弱。

China has many migrants and more than half of them intended to live in the city for a long time.Through the statistical analysis of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2015,it is found that the migrants with higher education level,higher monthly average income and higher monthly living expenses has stronger willingness to stay in the city,and analyzes each factors using the binary logistic model.The results show that demographic variables such as gender,age and marital status have a significant impact on the city-residing willingness,and women's willingness to stay is significantly higher than that of men.Young migrants born in 1990-1999 has a weaker city-residing willingness,which is significantly lower than that in other age groups;the marital status such as married remarried is significantly higher than the unmarried.In terms of education level,the degree of primary school,junior high school education has no significant influence on city-residing willingness.At the high school level and later,with the improvement of education level,the city-residing willingness is gradually increasing.The higher the average income of the migrants,the stronger the willingness to stay,indicating that the current city-residing willingness of the migrants in China will be differentiated due to the difference in income levels.Housing costs such as rent and mortgage have a mutually restrictive relationship with average income,with the increasing of housing costs,the migrants gradually increased city-residing willingness,but obviously inhibiting the city-residing willingness of migrants with high income levels.After adding the cost of living,with the rising cost of living,the migrants city-residing willingness is significantly enhanced,indicating that the migrants tends to settle in large cities with high living costs and high quality of life,but the increase in the cost of living further restricts the city-residing willingness at all income levels.