供给侧结构性改革下中国碳排放量潜在增长率估算

Estimation on the Potential Growth Rate of Carbon Emissions in China Under Supply-Side Structural Reform

采用生产函数法,将消费、投资和净出口等产生的碳排放量纳入到碳排放总量增长框架中,借助年度省级面板数据对2000—2016年各要素碳排放产出弹性进行计算,估算我国潜在碳排放量增长率,并预测分省潜在碳排放量。结果表明:我国碳排放量增长仍是投资驱动型和工业增长型;从供给侧角度看,潜在碳排放量增长率的下降,主要源于投资结构向好,净出口向中高端延伸所引致。但需求侧管理所产生的消费领域碳排放量的增长一定程度上抵消了投资和净出口碳排放量的减少;根据预测结果,经济在三种发展情境下(基准、乐观、悲观),碳排量变化差异都不大;分省预测结果可知,不同区域潜在碳减排率仍存较大差异。并据此提出政策建议。

The paper adopts the production functions.And the carbon emissions such as consumption,total investment,and net exports are included in the total growth framework of the carbon emission.Then it calculates the elements output elasticity of carbon emission based on the annual provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016.Further,it estimates the potential growth rate on the carbon emissions of China,and forecasts the potential carbon emissions among provinces.The research shows that the growth of carbon emissions in China is still driven by the huge investment and the industrial development.From the perspective of the supply side,the decline in the growth rate of potential carbon emissions is mainly due to the better investment structure and the net exports moving towards the medium to high end.However,the increase in carbon emissions from the consumer sector generated by the demand side has partially offset the decrease in carbon emissions from the investment and net export.According to the forecast results,the carbon emissions have little differences under the three economic development scenarios(benchmark,optimism and pessimism)in China.According to the provincial forecast results,there is still a big difference in the potential reduction rates on the carbon emission in different regions.Accordingly,we propose the countermeasures and suggestions.