基于供需平衡法的出租汽车发展规模测算

Calculation of the development scale of taxis based on the balance of supply and demand

为使出租汽车拥有量保持合理的发展规模,采用供需平衡法对出租汽车的发展规模进行测算,以此达到城市客运资源的合理分配,满足城市居民的出行需求。现对供需平衡理论的基本原理以及运算步骤进行梳理,然后对出租汽车发展规模进行测算,计算出租汽车的总有效行驶里程以及空驶率,得出城市出租汽车总量。最后以黑龙江省某县客运出租汽车的运营为例,根据其客运出租汽车运营数据,依照供需平衡模型进行运算,最终预测出规划期十三年的出租汽车最佳保有量。

In order to maintain a reasonable scale of development of taxi ownership,the scale of development of taxis is measured by the balance of supply and demand method,so as to achieve a reasonable distribution of urban passenger transportation resources and meet the travel needs of urban residents.Firstly,the basic principles and calculation steps of the theory of supply and demand balance are sorted out.The final state of supply and demand balance is to achieve the two-way optimal economic and social benefits,calculate the travel demand of passenger taxis,and calculate the total effective mileage of taxis.As well as the vacancy rate,the total number of urban taxis is finally obtained.Finally,the operation of the passenger taxi in Huanan County is taken as an example.According to the passenger taxi operation data,the calculation is based on the supply and demand balance model.The final calculations indicate that the optimal number of taxis in 2020,2025 and 2030 is expected to be 516,684 and 896 respectively.The research results provide a theoretical basis for the development of taxi development scale.