城郊失地农民的征地补偿满意度与冲突意愿研究——基于济南城郊失地农民的调查

STUDY ON LAND REQUISITION COMPENSATION SATISFACTION AND CONFLICT INTENTION OF LAND-LOST PEASANTS IN SUBURBS——INVESTIGATION BASED ON LAND-LOST PEASANTS IN THE SUBURBS OF JINAN

[目的]深入探究城郊失地农民征地补偿满意度和冲突意愿,以期完善征地补偿制度,并为相关决策部门提供借鉴。[方法]以济南城郊400名失地农民为样本,以暴力反抗、信访行为和网络申诉为因变量,以补偿方式、补偿标准和补偿分配公平性的满意度为自变量,以年龄、性别、受教育年限、失地年限、社会资源、家庭纯收入、家庭资产和土地补偿金额为控制变量,文章采用分层回归分析探究征地补偿满意度各维度对冲突意愿的不同影响。[结果]实证分析表明补偿分配公平性对暴力反抗、信访行为和网络申诉均有极为显著的负向预测作用;但补偿方式仅负向预测暴力反抗,补偿标准仅负向预测信访行为,据此我们认为补偿分配公平性才是暴力冲突的关键变量。[结论]在城郊征地过程中,应切实保障征地补偿分配公平性,提高补偿标准,扩大补偿范围,且对失地年限较长的城郊失地农民提高其土地增值收益占比。

In order to improve the land expropriation compensation system and provide relevant decision-making advise , this study explored the correlationship between land requisition satisfaction and conflict willingness of land-lost peasants. 400 land-lost peasants were recruited from the suburb of Jinan. The hierarchical linear regression model was constructed to explore the influence of land requisition satisfaction to conflict willingness of land-lost peasants. In this model the dependent variables were violent resistance, petition behavior and network appeal, the independent variables were mode of compensation, compensation standard and compensation distribution fairness, the control variables were age, sex, years of education, year of land-loss, social resources, family net income, family assets and amount of land requisition. The result shows that the compensation distribution fairness negatively predicts violence resistance, petition behavior and network appeal; the mode of compensation only negatively predicts violent resistance; the compensation standard only negatively predicts the petition behavior. The key variable of the violence conflict is compensation distribution fairness. In the process of land expropriation, it is necessary to ensure the fairness of distribution for land expropriation compensation, improve the compensation standard, expand the compensation range, and increase the proportion of land value-added income to the peasants who have lost land for a long period of time.