我国经常账户收支发展趋势研究

Research on the Development Trend of China's Current Account Income and Expenditure

经常账户收支变动相对平稳对维持我国国际收支平衡具有重要意义。近年来,我国经常账户差额经历了由升到降的演变过程,虽然当前仍处于合理均衡区间,但需警惕未来我国经常账户过度波动的风险。本文在分析我国国际收支结构与经常账户趋势演变的基础上,对影响我国国际收支结构与经常账户差额的因素进行了定量分析和预测,并认为我国将延续"顺逆互补"的国际收支结构。

The relatively stable changes in current account balances are of great significance for maintaining China's balance of payments. In recent years,China's current account balance has experienced a process of evolution from rising to falling. Although it is still in a reasonable and balanced range,it is necessary to be alert to the risk of excessive current account volatility. Based on the analysis of the development trend in China's balance of payments structure and current account balance,this paper quantitatively analyzes and predicts the factors affecting China's balance of payments structure and current account balance by VAR model,and draws on Japan's experience to propose policy recommendations to promote the steady development of China's medium and long-term current account balance.