原油价格短期预测因素初步研究

Preliminary Study on Short-Term Forecasting Factors of Crude Oil Prices

油价的影响因素众多。本文对石油的供给、需求、库存等方面的相关数据进行了梳理,对短期活跃钻机、库存变化、地缘政治因素期货持仓等相关重要指标进行了总结。供给端方面美国页岩油由于其短周期特性,边际供给最具弹性,决定着目前油价的中枢。在梳理和总结石油价格影响因素的基础上,本文对加强能源信息统计数据体系建设提出了相关建议。

There are many factors affecting oil prices. This paper sorts out relevant data on supply, demand, inventory, etc., and summarizes relevant important indicators such as short-term active drilling rigs, inventory changes, and geopolitical factors futures positions for short-term oil price prediction. On the supply side, the US shale oil, due to its short-period characteristics, makes it the most elastic marginal supply, which determines the current oil price. On this basis, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for strengthening the construction of energy information statistics system.