“半负面案例比较法”与机制辨别--北约与华约的命运为何不同

“Semi-Negative Case Comparison” and the Identification of Mechanism: Comparing the Different Fates of NATO and the Warsaw Pact

在当前的社会科学研究中,正负面案例比较已成为一种常见的研究方法。但是,此方法并不能有效地甄别因果机制。传统的案例比较法假定,正面与负面案例在因素上的差异将决定这一机制能否在相应的案例中得到激活和运行。在正面案例中,机制未受阻碍,并导致相应结果的出现。而在负面案例中,机制受到阻碍,从而无法导致该结果的出现。但是,传统的案例比较方法并不能真正确认其认定的机制是否真实运转,因为也可能多个因素加上机制导致负面结果。为此,作者创新性地提出"半负面案例比较"的方法。此方法可以清晰地展现因素、机制与结果之间的关系,从而可以更有力地论证机制的作用。为了体现此方法的实际作用,它被用于分析冷战时期美苏各自联盟的不同结局:解释为何冷战时期的北约维持了基本的稳定并最终发展为安全共同体,而华约并不稳定并最终解体。通过半负面案例比较法,可发现联盟内和解是理解此问题的关键机制。影响此机制的重要变量是该联盟成员的国内管理体制。在联盟成员国具备有限性、灵活性和开放性的管理体制时,联盟内更容易实现和解,反之则更不容易实现和解,而这会影响联盟最终的发展结果。

Comparing a positive case against a negative case has become a standard method in social science research.However,this standard method is weak in identifying the mechanism.The standard method assumes that the differences in causal factors in the positive and negative cases determine whether the mechanism operates or not and in turn whether an outcome is reached or not.Unfortunately,the standard method cannot adequately establish the purported mechanism because many possible combinations of factors and mechanisms can prevent an outcome from being realized in the negative case.This article proposes an innovative case comparison method,namely,“semi-negative case comparison”.We argue that“semi-negative case comparison”will allow us to establish mechanism(s)more confidently because it allows us to visu-alize the interaction of factors and mechanisms in driving outcomes.To demonstrate the power of this method,we apply this method to examine the very different fates of two Cold War alliances:NATO and the Warsaw Pact.During the Cold War,two compe-ting superpowers both constituted their own alliance system,which shared a lot of similar initial conditions.Nevertheless,these two alliances eventually ended up with two opposite outcomes:the NATO evolved into a security community and the Warsaw Pact finally collapsed.With the help of“the semi negative case comparison,the article identifies the intraalliance reconciliation as one of the key mechanisms to explain this question and the characteristics of domestic management system determine whether the mechanism of reconciliation can take effects or not.In the positive case of NATO,the reconciliation mechanism is facilitated due to its liberal,flexible and open domestic management system,while in the negative case of the Warsaw Pact,the same mechanism is inhibited due to its authoritarian,rigid and isolated domestic management system.By comparing the development trajectories of these two alliance systems,this paper demonstrates the power of“semi-negative case comparison”in social science research and also strongly proves that the reconciliation is important to the longterm stability and solidarity of an alliance system.