敌意增加抑或能力下降?——领土冲突引发国内武装冲突的双重效应分析

Increased Outer Hostility or Reduced Inner Capability? A Mediation Analysis on State's External Use of Force in Causing the Outbreak of Civil Conflict

学界对国内武装冲突爆发原因的分析视角正逐渐从当事国自身的政治经济条件扩展到国际政治层面。一国参与国际冲突常伴随着国内冲突风险的提升。对于国家对外使用武力引发内部冲突的解释,至少存在两条分析路径:一是国际冲突增加了敌对国家持续甚至加大资助当事国国内反政府势力的意愿,进而使国内冲突更易爆发;二是当事国参与国际冲突将消耗其本用于维持内部政治秩序的资源,这对反叛势力而言是发动内部冲突的有利条件。可以使用中介分析框架对上述两条路径进行比较。对1946—2006年国际体系内成员的实证分析显示,如果当事国与其邻国发生(过)领土冲突,其国内反政府势力受到外部资助的可能性会增加,并间接地通过该中介变量提升国内冲突爆发概率。同时,尽管领土冲突在部分模型设定中存在提升当事国内部冲突风险的经验证据,但这种与当事国能力下降有关的直接效应相对缺少稳健性。分析国家间敌意和国内冲突爆发风险被中介因素连接的情形,不仅为冲突理论在理解复杂因果关联方面提供了初步设定和检验,还为致力于抑制冲突风险的区域安全机制及维和努力提供了具有参考价值的政策启示。只有在叛乱资助问题上认识到相关国家间的对抗现状及成因,才能使政策谈判和实践为减少内部政治暴力做出实际贡献。

While researchers striving to uncover causes of civil conflict have produced fruitful insights,not many put structured efforts in investigating the intergovernmental political dynamics that go along with the outbreak of domestic strife.Underpinned by the conviction that interstate and intrastate conflicts in frequent cases are interlinked,this article discusses in what way(s)state's external use of force stimulates domestic conflict risks.In setting forth the mediating mechanism,it demonstrates two possible pathways:(a)the intensified hostility resulting from target state's militarized disputes with its counterpart makes the latter more determined to support the former's domestic dissents,which contributes to the upcoming rebellious event;and(b)the diversionary effect of target state's external use of force,which is often so resource-consuming that its capability for securing domestic political order could be therefore diminished,brings up civil conflict odds.The empirical tests of the conflict-influenced states during1946-2006confirm that the neighboring state's rebel support may act as the mediator when previous interstate territorial disputes ever irritated civil conflict onset,whereas the evi-dence for the competence-reducing effect exerted by the target's foreign use of force for the same issue presents less consistent.To take extended notice of the mediating effect in between interstate militarized interactions and intrastate violence not only enables re-lated formulation in conflict studies to proceed,but also implies effective peacemaking solution in the war-torn societies and regions.